I free jumped him last night.
Can he jump? Yes. Yes, he can.
Sadly, I didn't get any of the more, er, interesting attempts on video. He doesn't quite understand that jumping to the right is pretty much the same as jumping to the left. Going to the right, it mostly went like this: gitgitgit, cantercanter, zomgwtf?!, waaaaalk up, try to step over the 2'9"(ish) jump, step/jump over from a standstill, knock it over, be traumatized at how scary it is. I ended up having to put it down to a crossrail so he could go over it without stopping or hesitating. Twit. So as long as we never have to jump anything on the right lead, we'll be fine!
Also, I was so glad I didn't ride last night. He was being a nut! Running and bucking and being silly.. It's been rainy and muddy, so he can't really run around in turnout, so I think he had some pent up energy.